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NFP Below Expectations, Oil & Bitcoin on the Rise

The new trading week starts in the wake of a weak NFP figure, Bitcoin rising to a level it last reached in May, Asian stocks rising, US stocks falling and oil trading above $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014.

NFP

The September payrolls report for the U.S. was released on Friday and it recorded the smallest jobs rise in 2021 with a meager 194,000 new jobs added. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% while average hourly earnings went up. The monthly jobs report for September is the second report in a row that failed to reach economists’ expectations. This points to a labor market that is weak as the Fed is preparing to cut stimulus.

Forex

The dollar reached a 2-and-a-half year high against the Japanese yen today, Monday. The dollar was not weakened as a lower-than-expected US payroll figure did not affect expectations that the US Fed will proceed with announcing a tapering of its bond-buying next month. The British pound is holding firm and extending its late September recovery after experiencing a set of lows during the first nine months of the year.

The recovery is attributed to expectations that the Bank of England (BOE) could raise interest rates to control increasing inflation. The Canadian Dollar reached a two-month high of C$1.24525 on Friday due to high Canadian payrolls data and soaring oil prices.

Asian Markets

Asian stocks rose today, Monday, due to rises in Japanese shares caused by a weaker yen and comments by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that he isn’t currently considering capital-gains tax changes.

US Markets

US stocks fell and Treasury yields rose on Friday after a lower-than-expected job gain in the U.S. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also fell in the wake of the weak jobs data.

Oil & Gold

West Texas Intermediate crude rose to above $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014 while gold is trading lower at around $1756.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trading at $56,677 at the time of writing, its highest price since May. The number one cryptocurrency is up 25% for the month of October, more than 35% from September 29 and it recovered all its China-related September losses. The rise in price for the crypto asset has not been affected by the threat of increasing scrutiny from U.S. regulators.

Events to Watch Closely this Week:

Tuesday
Bank of Korea policy decision and briefing.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks on inflation.
Wednesday
U.S. FOMC minutes and CPI.

Thursday
China PPI, CPI.
U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI.