Daily Afternoon Report 07.03.2016

The euro fell on Monday on bets of stimulus from the European Central Bank meeting later this week to support fragile eurozone growth, while the dollar firmed following a solid payrolls report last week.

Most commodity currencies were little changed amid recent gains in oil and industrial metal prices and the following assurance from China this weekend the world’s second-largest economy isn’t heading for a hard landing.

The ECB is expected on Thursday to push interest rates further into negative territory and make some kind of adjustment to its 1.1 trillion euro bond-purchase program, but after the bank disappointed many in markets in December, traders were loath to bet more heavily against the single currency.

The greenback rose on the euro weakness as well as traders’ reassessment of Friday’s jobs report that showed stronger-than-forecast hiring in February and a surprise dip in average hourly earnings.

The dollar had slipped on Friday as some investors focused on the disappointing wage aspect of the report, but it has since rebounded on the view of a diminished likelihood of a U.S. recession in the coming months.

Meanwhile, most commodity currencies were flat to marginally lower against the dollar even as spot iron ore prices surged nearly 20 percent to over eight-month highs partly on bets on stronger Chinese demand.

Oil futures reached three-month highs in hopes of reduced supply in the face of soft global demand. [O/R]

Canada and New Zealand’s central banks will hold policy meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.