Daily Morning Report & Daily Technical Levels 19/11/2015

Daily Morning Report 19.11.2015

The yen gained in Asia on Thursday as the the trade balance swung into positive territory and investors looked ahead to the Bank of Japan. USD/JPY changed hands at 123.51, down 0.10%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7120, up 0.15%. In Japan, the trade balance widened to a surplus of ¥112 billion in October, the first positive result in seven months. Imports fell 13.4% year-on-year, while exports declined 2.1%. The Bank of Japan will release its latest monetary policy views at 0330 GMT followed by a 0630 GMT press conference by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The central bank is expected to hold policy steady on asset buying, but may highlight risks to meeting its 2% sustained inflation target. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.02% at 99.65. Overnight, the dollar held steady at seven-month highs against the other major currencies on Tuesday, after the release of mixed U.S. housing sector data, as hopes that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its meeting next month continued to support the greenback. The minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed Wednesday broad support for the decision to include a reference to the next meeting in the statement, though members generally agreed it was prudent to wait to raise rates until it had more information. A trio of policymakers from the Federal Reserve sent further indications that the U.S. Central Bank will raise short-term interest rates when it convenes next at a meeting in mid-December. Appearing on a panel alongside New York Fed president William Dudley and Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester, Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart indicated that disruptions in the global financial markets have subsided enough for the Fed to strongly consider a rate hike in December. The Fed’s benchmark Federal Funds Rate has remained at its current level between zero and 0.25% for nearly seven years since December, 2008. “I am comfortable with moving off zero soon, conditioned on no marked deterioration in economic conditions,” Lockhart said at the Clearing House Payments System Risk Symposium in New York. “I believe it will soon be appropriate to begin a new policy phase.” Mester reiterated her views that conditions in the economy have improved enough to handle a modest rate increase. While the president of the Federal Reserve of Cleveland does not own a vote at the December meeting, she will regain one in the Fed’s next cycle. Dudley, meanwhile, noted that he does not expect to see any unpredictable market reactions when the Fed eventually decides to normalize policy since the potential move has been so well-documented in recent weeks. The New York Fed has a number of tools at its disposal to help adjust the Fed Funds Rate once the decision is made. The CME Group’s (O:O:O:CME) Fed Watch increased the probability of a December rate hike by eight points to 72% on Wednesday following the remarks. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that housing starts dropped 11% to 1.060 million units last month from September’s total of 1.191 million units. Analysts had expected a decline of 3.9% to 1.160 million. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. building permits issued rose 4.1% to 1.150 million units from September’s total of 1.105 million, broadly in line with market expectations. Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned by expectations that the Fed will hike rates before the years end.

 

19.11.2015 – 07:10 GMT+2

Daily Technical Levels

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

AUD/USD

USD/CAD

USD/CHF

R3:

1,0782

1,5356

124,02

0,7242

1,3329

1,0232

R2:

1,0747

1,5321

123,67

0,7207

1,3294

1,0197

R1:

1,0722

1,5296

123,42

0,7182

1,3269

1,0172

S1:

1,0692

1,5266

123,12

0,7152

1,3239

1,0142

S2:

1,0667

1,5241

122,87

0,7127

1,3214

1,0117

S3:

1,0632

1,5206

122,52

0,7092

1,3179

1,0082